Forest and woodland replacement patterns following drought-related mortality.

Forest vulnerability to drought is expected to increase under anthropogenic climate change, and drought-induced mortality and community dynamics following drought have major ecological and societal impacts. Here, we show that tree mortality concomitant with drought has led to short-term (mean 5 y, range 1 to 23 y after mortality) vegetation-type conversion in multiple biomes across the world (131 sites). Self-replacement of the dominant tree species was only prevalent in 21% of the examined cases and forests and woodlands shifted to nonwoody vegetation in 10% of them. The ultimate temporal persistence of such changes remains unknown but, given the key role of biological legacies in long-term ecological succession, this emerging picture of postdrought ecological trajectories highlights the potential for major ecosystem reorganization in the coming decades. Community changes were less pronounced under wetter postmortality conditions. Replacement was also influenced by management intensity, and postdrought shrub dominance was higher when pathogens acted as codrivers of tree mortality. Early change in community composition indicates that forests dominated by mesic species generally shifted toward more xeric communities, with replacing tree and shrub species exhibiting drier bioclimatic optima and distribution ranges. However, shifts toward more mesic communities also occurred and multiple pathways of forest replacement were observed for some species. Drought characteristics, species-specific environmental preferences, plant traits, and ecosystem legacies govern postdrought species turnover and subsequent ecological trajectories, with potential far-reaching implications for forest biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Low growth resilience to drought is related to future mortality risk in trees.

Severe droughts have the potential to reduce forest productivity and trigger tree mortality. Most trees face several drought events during their life and therefore resilience to dry conditions may be crucial to long-term survival. We assessed how growth resilience to severe droughts, including its components resistance and recovery, is related to the ability to survive future droughts by using a tree-ring database of surviving and now-dead trees from 118 sites (22 species, >3,500 trees). We found that, across the variety of regions and species sampled, trees that died during water shortages were less resilient to previous non-lethal droughts, relative to coexisting surviving trees of the same species. In angiosperms, drought-related mortality risk is associated with lower resistance (low capacity to reduce impact of the initial drought), while it is related to reduced recovery (low capacity to attain pre-drought growth rates) in gymnosperms. The different resilience strategies in these two taxonomic groups open new avenues to improve our understanding and prediction of drought-induced mortality.

ADCY9 (Adenylate Cyclase Type 9) Inactivation Protects From Atherosclerosis Only in the Absence of CETP (Cholesteryl Ester Transfer Protein).

BACKGROUND: Pharmacogenomic studies have shown that ADCY9 genotype determines the effects of the CETP (cholesteryl ester transfer protein) inhibitor dalcetrapib on cardiovascular events and atherosclerosis imaging. The underlying mechanisms responsible for the interactions between ADCY9 and CETP activity have not yet been determined. METHODS: Adcy9-inactivated ( Adcy9Gt/Gt) and wild-type (WT) mice, that were or not transgenic for the CETP gene (CETPtg Adcy9Gt/Gt and CETPtg Adcy9WT), were submitted to an atherogenic protocol (injection of an AAV8 [adeno-associated virus serotype 8] expressing a PCSK9 [proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9] gain-of-function variant and 0.75% cholesterol diet for 16 weeks). Atherosclerosis, vasorelaxation, telemetry, and adipose tissue magnetic resonance imaging were evaluated. RESULTS: Adcy9Gt/Gt mice had a 65% reduction in aortic atherosclerosis compared to WT ( P<0.01). CD68 (cluster of differentiation 68)-positive macrophage accumulation and proliferation in plaques were reduced in Adcy9Gt/Gt mice compared to WT animals ( P<0.05 for both). Femoral artery endothelial-dependent vasorelaxation was improved in Adcy9Gt/Gt mice (versus WT, P<0.01). Selective pharmacological blockade showed that the nitric oxide, cyclooxygenase, and endothelial-dependent hyperpolarization pathways were all responsible for the improvement of vasodilatation in Adcy9Gt/Gt ( P<0.01 for all). Aortic endothelium from Adcy9Gt/Gt mice allowed significantly less adhesion of splenocytes compared to WT ( P<0.05). Adcy9Gt/Gt mice gained more weight than WT with the atherogenic diet; this was associated with an increase in whole body adipose tissue volume ( P<0.01 for both). Feed efficiency was increased in Adcy9Gt/Gt compared to WT mice ( P<0.01), which was accompanied by prolonged cardiac RR interval ( P<0.05) and improved nocturnal heart rate variability ( P=0.0572). Adcy9 inactivation-induced effects on atherosclerosis, endothelial function, weight gain, adipose tissue volume, and feed efficiency were lost in CETPtg Adcy9Gt/Gt mice ( P>0.05 versus CETPtg Adcy9WT). CONCLUSIONS: Adcy9 inactivation protects against atherosclerosis, but only in the absence of CETP activity. This atheroprotection may be explained by decreased macrophage accumulation and proliferation in the arterial wall, and improved endothelial function and autonomic tone.

Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth.

Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last ∼20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.

Towards a common methodology for developing logistic tree mortality models based on ring-width data.

Tree mortality is a key process shaping forest dynamics. Thus, there is a growing need for indicators of the likelihood of tree death. During the last decades, an increasing number of tree-ring based studies have aimed to derive growth-mortality functions, mostly using logistic models. The results of these studies, however, are difficult to compare and synthesize due to the diversity of approaches used for the sampling strategy (number and characteristics of alive and death observations), the type of explanatory growth variables included (level, trend, etc.), and the length of the time window (number of years preceding the alive/death observation) that maximized the discrimination ability of each growth variable. We assess the implications of key methodological decisions when developing tree-ring based growth-mortality relationships using logistic mixed-effects regression models. As examples, we use published tree-ring datasets from Abies alba (13 different sites), Nothofagus dombeyi (one site), and Quercus petraea (one site). Our approach is based on a constant sampling size and aims at (1) assessing the dependency of growth-mortality relationships on the statistical sampling scheme used, (2) determining the type of explanatory growth variables that should be considered, and (3) identifying the best length of the time window used to calculate them. The performance of tree-ring-based mortality models was reasonably high for all three species (area under the receiving operator characteristics curve, AUC > 0.7). Growth level variables were the most important predictors of mortality probability for two species (A. alba, N. dombeyi), while growth-trend variables need to be considered for Q. petraea. In addition, the length of the time window used to calculate each growth variable was highly uncertain and depended on the sampling scheme, as some growth-mortality relationships varied with tree age. The present study accounts for the main sampling-related biases to determine reliable species-specific growth-mortality relationships. Our results highlight the importance of using a sampling strategy that is consistent with the research question. Moving towards a common methodology for developing reliable growth-mortality relationships is an important step towards improving our understanding of tree mortality across species and its representation in dynamic vegetation models.